FORECAST: Real Estate – A Case of the ‘Yeah But’s’ Again
by Ozzie Jurock
It is wildly unpopular to be positive in British Columbia these days. We are down, we feel down, we want to be down and down we are. Particularly in the real estate market, we like to wallow in our self-imposed misery. No matter what the positive news, no matter what the uplifting statement, it is always countered with a frown followed by a seemingly knowledgeable: Yeah, but … (Put in your favourite: NDP, Taxes, housing crash).
I find this amazing. In 1960, the average Vancouver home sold for $13,105. Thirty-eight years later (1998), the average sale price stood at $346,540. Assuming long-ago you had plunked down ten per cent or $1,310 as down payment and hung in there; you would now be gloating over a 26,455-per-cent return on that original down payment. And you have a roof over your noggin to boot. Amazing! Today that average SF house is $1,800,000! Exercise in fantasy but if this lift kept right on trucking for the next 25 years, by the year 2023 that $13,000 home will be commanding over $6 million dollars. And you will still have a roof over your gray hairs.
But at various times in our history, the Yeah, buts scare people out of their wits. In 2003, 2008, 2011 and now 2019 they are out. The naysayers with fur.
We are told that real estate’s day is gone; that this is a New World and that this or that factor will sink real estate investment. Of course, the Chinese have disproved that theory for 2,000 years; the Europeans and North Americans have founded their empires on real estate. In fact, ownership of even the humblest real estate has been the greatest wealth builder bar none for the average person. It has made the average North American wealthier than his counterpart in any other part of the world. In fact, it is the defining difference between rich and poor nations. But no matter to the naysayer this time it is somehow different.
Ok, what about now in 2019? The US tried QT … for 5 months resulting in a stock market crash. QE is back in Europe – will come back in US. All hard assets will be higher. But a new world is upon us … learn to love it … get involved … buy hard new hard assets. So many new opportunities.
Our future is shifting – learn about this. It’s here already…
Cashless society,Paperless world,4-day work week,Driverless cars,Everything online – everything next day delivery,Virtual and augmented reality,3D printing houses (your widgets?) just starting,
Be positive: The whole world wants to live here. YOU already do!
Foreigners will keep coming … Canada is rated No. 3 for safetyBuy: Your own office/industrial/retail store. Always!Buy: Strata office/strata warehouseBuy: Inner city warehouses (next day delivery needs close-by storage)Buy: Your house/your condo – haggle hard.Yes, 50 developments have been put on hold. Great! That adds value to existing unsold inventory.Understand you make the most money on the day you buy! That is when people run scared. Make stink bids. Buy that deal of a lifetime.Buy cash flow, you can still buy hundreds of cashflow houses condos under $100,000: E.g. in May 2019: Kimberley Ski condo on the hill, fully furnished $79,500.Luxury condos and house prices coming down … make stink bids.Rent a luxury condo, buy a rental property where your money cashflows.Ok, don’t buy: Timeshare, quarter share, Phase 2 condos, Hotel condos, ski resorts without golf.A new phenomena: Lifelong tenants – rental buildings will do well.Study, work, make offers, get the deal of a lifetime. Subscribe to the FREE Oz Buzz … live your life LARGE.
Forget the ‘Yeah buts’. We are thriving in BC. We have consumers that consume. We are in a cycle of growth. This week we had a record in job growth – 8 times the number for April expected. We need more labour. We have huge net foreign immigration (yes, still). We have a desirable high-tech industry, a roaring movie industry, exports and construction all combined to create a diverse and roaring economy. Our GDP expansion is best in Canada together with the lowest unemployment rate. We have the best stores in the world on Alberni St. The world is coming to BC. And not just the high end world: 70 per cent of Canadians over 60 want to retire in BC.
Oh, my BC. My Love. Our BC has a majestic environment, outstanding climate and spectacular vistas. There is a very crisp quality in BC. Call it the fine mountain air or ocean spray, balmy sunsets, or clear blue skies that stretch to the horizon. Part of it is that special flavour of the West – an entrepreneurial, innovative flavour, a generosity of spirit, and open arms, an embracing of life in the outdoors and life where the individual can grow to his or her own future best. People from all parts of the world come here, bringing their individuality, charm, wisdom and business acumen.
To work here is a privilege. To live here is a true blessing. To study here is a benefit. To worship here is a natural. To love and hold here – this is paradise.
Credit Union Central says: Prices will double in 20 years.
Ozzie Jurock at Real Estate Insider and ozbuzz.ca agrees!